States Trump Is Most Likely to Win Again
How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map
We looked at how 16 battleground states voted in 2020 and the last five presidential elections
Presidential elections are decided at the margins, meaning how a scattering of states shift from ane election to the next can be plenty to bandage one party out of the White Firm and bring the other one in. This was certainly true in 2020, as Joe Biden edged out President Trump thanks to narrow victories in cardinal swing states such equally Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — all states Trump carried in 2016. All the same, it wasn't a uniform swing. The size and scope of these shifts varied, and many may not exist lasting. Some formerly blue states returned to their pre-2016 status; some once-red states lurched to the left, in some cases even voting Democratic for the first fourth dimension in decades; and some competitive states didn't shift much at all. Below, we've cleaved out how 16 battlefield states voted since 2000 and what the e'er-changing Electoral College map could mean going forward.
The "blue wall" went blue in one case again
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by land, from 2000 to 2020
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Michigan
Let'due south start with the much fabled "bluish wall" that Biden won dorsum. By winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in improver to every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, Biden clinched the presidency. In fact, it looks like Wisconsin volition be the tipping-indicate state in the Electoral College, or the state that delivered Biden the presidency, although we're notwithstanding awaiting the terminal vote certification in several states.
And even though these states ended upwardly in Biden's column, his margin of victory was pretty narrow. He won Michigan by about 3 percent points, Pennsylvania by a little more than one indicate, and Wisconsin by less than 1 bespeak. Granted, Trump carried each of these states by less than 1 signal in 2016, but Biden's margins were slim and it'southward unclear moving forward whether these states will remain blue.
Biden was able to win these three states by improving on Clinton's margins in predominantly suburban and exurban counties effectually big cities like Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, where more than white voters with a college caste backed the Democratic presidential ticket — a trend that was truthful across the country. In fact, it was thanks to gains in these types of places that Biden was able to offset Trump's otherwise much stronger performance in rural areas, as well as Trump's slight improvement in the urban center of Philadelphia proper. Case in signal: Fifty-fifty though Biden is on rails to win by a slightly larger national margin than Barack Obama in 2012, his margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were much smaller than Obama'southward in 2012.
This underscores only how much these states have changed since 2008, gradually (or, in some cases, not so gradually) shifting to the right. Part of this boils down to demographics. Non-Hispanic white voters without a iv-year higher degree, who brand up a bulk of the population in these iii states,ane Of the population age 25 years or older. accept moved sharply toward the GOP in the Trump era. And while some pre-election polling suggested these voters might non back Trump to the same extent as they did four years ago, it appears that wasn't the instance. White voters without a college caste not only stuck with Trump in 2020 — in some places, they even supported him past fifty-fifty greater margins.
Merely Biden'due south victory didn't simply involve winning back historically blueish turf. He also won by breaking through in two traditionally Republican states in the Sun Chugalug, Arizona and Georgia, which have gradually shifted blueish in the Trump era.
2 Sun Chugalug states went blue for the start time in more than twenty years
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Arizona
Georgia
After comfortably backing then-GOP presidential nominee Manus Romney past nine points in 2012, Arizona shifted more than than v points toward the Democrats in 2016 and then another 4 points in 2020 to paw Biden a slim 0.3-point win. Similarly, Georgia went for Romney by eight points in 2012, merely then shifted most 3 points toward Democrats in 2016 earlier moving some other 5 points in 2020, which was enough for Biden to bear it by about 0.iii points. The fact these two states ended upward in Biden's win column wasn't a total surprise, though, equally the 2018 midterm elections foreshadowed Biden'southward potential to carry each country. Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona for the get-go time since 1988 and lost Georgia'due south governorship by nearly one indicate.
Biden won these two states in large office by improving upon Democrats' performance in each land'south metro area. For case, he won Maricopa Canton, which includes Phoenix and normally makes up threescore percent of Arizona's total vote share, by 2 points. He also surged in the Atlanta metro expanse, improving on Clinton'southward margin in the 10 counties that brand upwards the Atlanta Regional Commission by 9 points, enabling him to win Georgia. Biden was as well aided by the fact that both of these states are more racially diverse than states in the Upper Midwest.
While the same forces at work in Arizona and Georgia were besides a part of the story in North Carolina and Texas, these ii states still ultimately remained in Trump's column.
Other southern states shifted to the left, simply they didn't flip
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin past state, from 2000 to 2020
N Carolina
Texas
In both states, Biden did better in the more than diverse and well-educated major metropolitan areas, simply that proved bereft. However, he still made some gains. In Texas, for instance, Biden became the first Autonomous presidential candidate to carry Tarrant Canton (Fort Worth) since 1964, and in North Carolina, he improved on Clinton'southward margins in the two near populous counties in the state, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Wake (Raleigh). He fifty-fifty carried some suburban and exurban counties that Trump won in 2016, such as Williamson Canton exterior of Austin, Texas, and New Hanover Canton, North Carolina (Wilmington).
Merely Trump still piled up a vote haul in Texas's extensive rural areas and mid-sized cities large enough to overcome Biden's improvement in the land's major metro areas. And in North Carolina, Biden lost footing in places where a large share of white voters don't have a four-year higher degree. He also did worse than Clinton in some rural North Carolina counties with large Black populations and in many heavily Latino Texas counties along the U.S.-United mexican states edge.
Even as southern states like Georgia, North Carolina and Texas moved to the left in this election, one nearby battleground did not: Florida.
Is Florida a Republican land now?
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Florida
Long regarded as a pivotal swing state, Florida was one of the few states that voted more Republican in 2020, with Trump carrying Florida by more than than iii points after winning there past merely ane point four years ago.
Part of the reason Trump was able to bolster his margin in Florida and move the land farther to the correct was considering of his improved showing among Hispanic voters, especially Cuban Americans. Trump ultimately didn't win urban counties like Miami-Dade, but it is where he improved the most, in part considering of his increased support among Cuban American voters. (Miami-Dade is roughly one-third Cuban, and areas where Cubans were more than heavily concentrated saw the biggest swings toward Trump.) Trump as well improved his vote share in Osceola County, which has a large Puerto Rican population, although not by near as much equally in Miami-Dade.
Simply by narrowing his deficit with Hispanic voters in addition to once over again running upwards huge margins in more than rural parts of the land, Trump managed to win a larger share of Florida'due south vote than he did in 2016. As Florida — generally considered a royal state — voted more than Republican for the fourth wheel in a row, five other ostensibly purple states that in the end went pretty decisively blue. Some of them featured very tight races in 2016, but the 2020 results, if anything, suggest that a couple may not actually be battleground states moving forrad — at to the lowest degree in presidential contests.
The "purple" states that easily went for Biden ...
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by state, from 2000 to 2020
Colorado
Virginia
... including some states that went narrowly for Clinton
Maine
Minnesota
New Hampshire
After moving away from the GOP in the Obama era, and sticking with Democrats in 2016, Colorado and Virginia went for Biden past more than 10 points in 2020, calling into question just how "swingy" they really are. At the very least, the Trump GOP appears to be a poor fit in these states, as both take relatively diverse populations — Colorado'due south population is most one-fifth Hispanic and Virginia'southward is almost one-5th Black — and their white residents are more likely to hold a 4-year college caste than those in any other battleground state. What's more, the big metropolitan areas in each land have likewise moved sharply toward the Democrats in recent years, with the Denver area and Washington, D.C., suburbs in northern Virginia becoming deep blue.
As for the three other states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 — Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire — we might not desire to revoke their purple-state status just withal. However, they did render to roughly where they were pre-2016, bankroll Biden by high, unmarried-digit margins. Yep, each of these states are amidst the more rural states — and Trump did have an reward in the near rural parts of these states (encounter Maine'south 2nd Congressional Commune, where he won an balloter vote) — just it nevertheless wasn't enough to overcome the margins Biden ran upward in the more populous parts of these states.
Non every battleground state saw movement in 2020, though. Iowa, Nevada and Ohio ended upwardly with roughly the same margin as in 2016, despite polls showing a close race in both Iowa and Ohio.
Some swing states barely budged at all
Democratic or Republican presidential vote share margin by country, from 2000 to 2020
Nevada
Iowa
Ohio
1 way to read Trump'southward rather decisive victories in Iowa and Ohio is that those states aren't really battlegrounds anymore, and instead may have experienced a permanent shift to the correct subsequently beingness quite competitive prior to 2016. Considering both states have a large share of white voters without a college degree, this makes sense, equally these results speak to just how entrenched this group has become with the GOP. Biden did gain some basis in urban and suburban counties in these states, but less populous areas stuck with Trump — or even moved farther to the correct — keeping both states firmly in Republican hands.
Meanwhile, Biden did hold steady in Nevada, but the fact the state didn't nudge toward the left could spell opportunity for Republicans down the road. While Nevada is far more than ethnically diverse than Iowa and Ohio (its population is nigh 29 percent Hispanic), it's similar to those two Midwestern states in that its white voters are far less probable to accept a iv-year college caste than in many other battlefield states. Coupled with Trump's slight comeback amongst Hispanic voters, that meant the president was able to reduce his deficit in Clark County (Las Vegas), home to almost seventy percent of the state'due south vote, by about 1 indicate while also still winning more votes in many of the land's rural counties. Biden's gains in the Reno area, which has a higher share of white voters with a higher degree, cancelled out shifts elsewhere in the land, but it's possible Democrats could accept problem holding onto Nevada in the years ahead.
All in all, the shifts we witnessed in the 2020 election give us at to the lowest degree some clues to how the Balloter College map may look going forrad. Arizona and Georgia will likely now exist seen as key swing states, while Colorado, Virginia, Iowa and Ohio may no longer be in the conversation around battleground states. Meanwhile, Florida's shift to the correct could make it a firmer linchpin in Republican electoral strategy, as Democrats will likely plow to North Carolina and Texas in the hopes that demographic change can brand them winnable in the well-nigh future. After all, equally we saw in 2020, it'due south small shifts that can alter the outcome of an ballot.
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Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/
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